Pre-IPO contracts suggest strong debut for Anthropic

These contracts, which track the anticipated value of private companies, are traded on cryptocurrency exchanges like Hyperliquid, Coinbase, Binance, and OKX. The Anthropic contract on Hyperliquid currently suggests a stock price of $98 and a market capitalization of approximately $1.7 trillion. This valuation is significantly higher than the $70-$78 range outlined in Anthropic’s updated S1 filing.

Trading in these contracts is not yet accessible to U.S. investors, but approximately $250 million in volume was exchanged on Hyperliquid’s Anthropic trackers within the last 24 hours. The contract began trading two weeks ago at $138, fluctuating between $110 and $120 before a recent decline influenced by broader tech stock selloffs, briefly dropping below $94.

Some market observers interpret these contract prices as indicating that investment banks deliberately undervalue companies before IPOs to ensure a surge in stock price after the listing. This dynamic was observed with SpaceX, where pre-IPO perpetual contracts traded at a premium before aligning with the equity price at the IPO and subsequently experiencing a rally of up to 40%.

The anticipation surrounding Anthropic’s roadshow appears to be impacting competitors. Hyperliquid data indicates a 7% decrease in the value of contracts tracking OpenAI’s market capitalization, now at $1.27 trillion, with $2.8 billion in trading volume over the past day.

Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR), a publicly-traded Treasury company investing in the HYPE tokens that power Hyperliquid, saw a 4% decrease in its share price on Tuesday, despite a substantial 150% year-to-date increase.