Natural gas prices to rise again in December 2026

The reference price of €206.26 including VAT per MWh will add roughly €16 before tax to the average household’s monthly bill. Over the entire year of 2026, the average bill is projected to increase by €143 including VAT, representing an 11.8% rise compared to 2025. The cost of supply has risen significantly, from €29.84 in April to €80.47 in December 2026.

Previous increases occurred in September (5.6%), October (6.3%), and November (6.6%).

Approximately 6 million households, or 60% of residential subscribers, have chosen offers indexed to the reference price. These tariffs fluctuate monthly and are adjusted by suppliers such as EDF, Engie, and Synelva. The remaining 40% of residential consumers with fixed-price contracts will maintain the rates stipulated in their contracts. The difference between these two types of offers could reach several hundred euros annually.

The current price surge is attributed to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. “We are subject to an international market price; we import 95% of our gas. Therefore, this price reflects the fact that there is less supply since the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz,” explained CRE President Emmanuelle Wargon. This reliance exposes France to global supply shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, and ongoing conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have disrupted liquefied natural gas transport routes. “This increase is almost exclusively due to the war and the gas transport routes that have been blocked,” stated Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Columbus Consulting and Terra Nova.

CRE President Wargon distinguishes between gas prices and availability, stating, “The question will be about prices, not about volumes. The risk of zero does not exist, but major observers consider that there is no problem of supply security coming this winter.” French reserves are considered sufficient to cover the winter months.

The price trajectory for 2027 remains uncertain. Without geopolitical easing in the Middle East, pressure on prices could persist. Households with indexed contracts may consider fixed-price offers during their next renewal. If increases continue into the first quarter of 2027, the possibility of a tariff shield or targeted aid could re-emerge in the public debate, particularly for low-income households.