XRP price drops, sparking questions about a 2026 recovery

In the week leading up to November 7th, XRP’s performance was the weakest among the five largest cryptocurrencies, decreasing by 7.1%. This compares to declines of 6.5% for Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), 2.3% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), 1.4% for BNB (CRYPTO: BNB), and 0.8% for Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH).

Technical analysts are closely watching key price levels. XRP faces immediate resistance at $1.20, where selling has previously stalled rallies. To reach the 20-day moving average of $1.28 would require a 10.2% increase, while the 50-day moving average sits at $1.38, representing an 18.8% climb. Currently, XRP trades below its 200-day average of $1.27, indicating a downward trend across short, medium, and long-term timelines. Reaching the 30-day closing high of $1.41 would require a significant rebound, although the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain levels above $1.30 recently. A return to its all-time high of $3.65 would necessitate a remarkable 214.3% increase.

With a market capitalization of $73.8 billion, XRP ranks fifth among cryptocurrencies. Its market cap peaked at $98.8 billion on September 22nd when XRP traded at $1.57.

Support for XRP currently lies around the August low. The cryptocurrency reached a low of $0.99 on August 16th, and previous analysis identified the $1.00 mark as a critical support level.

The recent slowdown in inflows to XRP spot ETFs is also being scrutinized. These ETFs recorded zero net flows on November 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th, a stark contrast to the $8.43 million inflow seen on October 29th. The funds’ net assets have decreased from $1.57 billion on October 21st to $1.34 billion on November 6th.

The broader cryptocurrency market also plays a role. Bitcoin, currently trading at $75,720 (just above its November 6th intraday low of $74,722), is below its 20-day average of $79,674 but above its 200-day average of $73,197. A drop below $74,722 could negatively impact XRP and push it toward its August low.

In August, XRP experienced a rally sparked by a White House crypto policy summit, where the president urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. This bill would place digital commodities like XRP under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15th failed, and the bill’s future is uncertain as it faces a potential lapse on January 3, 2027.

Analysts are asking whether XRP can rebound before the end of 2026. A return to the 20-day moving average of $1.28 would be a positive sign, but surpassing $1.41 would likely require a catalyst. Predicting a 2030 price is difficult, given XRP’s 9.8% decline over the past five years. A recovery hinges on XRP closing above $1.20, reclaiming $1.28, and seeing a return of ETF inflows, alongside Bitcoin remaining above $74,722. Failure to achieve these conditions could see XRP fall back towards its August low of $0.99.