Analysts warn of bolder Russia and China amid potential Trump departure
Recent reports from the Congressional Budget Office indicate that ongoing conflicts have significantly depleted U.S. missile-defense interceptors, consuming as much as two-thirds since June 2025, primarily due to defensive actions supporting Israel against Iranian attacks. This depletion is expected to limit U.S. capabilities for several years.
Strategic deployments, such as the positioning of three U.S. aircraft carriers in the Middle East, have inadvertently reduced naval presence in Asia, potentially creating opportunities for China to act more aggressively.
“I think Trump’s only interest right now is in cutting economic deals with China. I don’t think he has any real interest in confronting China, but that is going to lead China to be even more aggressive,” stated an analyst.
While President Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan in December, he subsequently paused a second package valued at approximately $14 billion, designating it as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations with China. This action occurs amidst China’s claim of sovereignty over self-governing Taiwan, a territory to which the U.S. provides defensive resources despite lacking a formal defense treaty.
Former CIA Director William Burns previously revealed in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the military to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, although this does not confirm a definitive invasion plan for that year.
The observations come as discussions are underway for a possible trilateral summit involving Trump, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the APEC Leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen later this month.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning confirmed Wednesday that Beijing is “in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state,” without disclosing any specific agenda.
President Putin previously proposed a three-way summit with Trump and Xi in October, aiming to explore avenues for ending the war in Ukraine, excluding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the discussions.
“If it’s clear that Donald Trump is on his way out, and the United States may be returning to something like normal, I don’t want to overstate that, but they may feel both of them, both Russia and China, may feel that the time to move is in the next two years,” an analyst cautioned.
Source
“Russia, China may be more aggressive if they feel Trump is on 'his way out': Brookings”
Read the original report ↗This story was written with the help of AI from the original report credited above and published after automatic checks. No person read it before publication. Errors reported to us are corrected and listed on our corrections page. Read our editorial policy · Report an error · Corrections
Read next
U.S. and China launch AI dialogue amidst competition
The United States and China must acknowledge their ongoing disagreements while collaborating to mitigate potential dangers associated with…
Related
Caught up in five lines
The Brief: the day’s biggest business stories, written by our desk at and .