Tech giants face potential $411 billion gain from Anthropic IPO

According to Reuters, the combined value of Amazon and Alphabet’s stakes in Anthropic could reach $411 billion if shares are priced at $78, the upper end of the projected range of $70 to $78. This potential windfall represents the total stake value at the IPO price, and neither company has yet commented on the matter. Amazon holds the larger stake, which will largely accrue over time.

Amazon’s stake has a more substantial impact on its stock price. At $78 per share, Amazon’s position is valued at $271.8 billion against an $18.0 billion investment. Google’s stake is valued at $139 billion, against $33.3 billion invested, a figure that includes approximately $10.0 billion Google is investing in the IPO placement itself.

Amazon’s stake represents roughly 9.3% of its market value, compared to 3.9% for Alphabet. This difference means the IPO price will have a greater effect on Amazon’s overall valuation.

| | Amazon | Alphabet | |-----------------|--------------------|--------------------| | Value at $78 | $271.8 billion | $139 billion | | Invested | $18.0 billion | $33.3 billion | | Value at $83 | $289 billion | $147 billion |

Amazon will initially hold 1,920,511,218 non-voting Class N shares, worth approximately $149.8 billion at $78. An additional 1,563,617,444 shares, valued at about $122.0 billion, will be issued later. This staggered release is due to contractual notes that limit Amazon’s ownership to 12% of Anthropic’s capitalization. Google’s agreement, with a 14.99% cap, also contributes to the phased release of shares, and neither company gains controlling interest.

Both Amazon and Google provide funding and computing power to Anthropic. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue increased by 39% to $45.98 billion, while Google Cloud revenue surged 103% to $30.71 billion. A significant portion of this growth is linked to the continued funding and operation of a major AI customer.

Analysts suggest evaluating these stakes alongside the companies’ cloud businesses, as both benefit from the same financial investments. Once Anthropic is publicly traded, both companies will adjust their reported earnings based on the market price of the shares.

Lock-up periods, lasting up to 180 days for most existing holders and up to 365 days for larger shareholders, will prevent immediate sales. Google’s placement shares are restricted and require registration before resale.

Some analysts anticipate a price above the initial range, potentially reaching $83 per share, which would translate to a $1.5 trillion valuation and a combined windfall of approximately $436 billion. However, a lower IPO price or subsequent stock volatility could reduce this potential gain.

Amazon offers more direct exposure to Anthropic than other large-cap stocks. Its larger, lower-cost stake and the accelerated growth of AWS, with projected growth exceeding 40% in both 2027 and 2028, highlight this benefit. However, Amazon’s valuation, trading at 38 times earnings, reflects significant investment in AI infrastructure. Alphabet, trading at a lower 13 times earnings, presents a more affordable alternative, although Anthropic represents a relatively small portion of its overall valuation.