Speculation mounts: Tesla and SpaceX merger could be announced soon

Should the merger proceed, Tesla shareholders would receive shares of SpaceX, effectively shifting ownership of Tesla to the space exploration and satellite internet company. The news initially boosted Tesla’s stock, which rose 1.69% to close at $397.45 on Thursday, November 12, 2026, while SpaceX saw a more modest increase of 0.14% in regular trading, closing at $139.94.

Key points of contention reportedly involve the valuation and control structure of the combined entity, with boards and advisors from both companies actively involved. A desire to finalize the deal before the end of President Trump’s term in office is also said to be a factor.

During SpaceX’s October 20, 2026, earnings call, Musk acknowledged the ongoing discussions, stating, “The special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction, and obviously there’s no guarantee that they will.”

A merger would fundamentally alter the investment profile for Tesla holders, transitioning their stake in an automotive and robotics firm to a company focused on space exploration, satellite internet (Starlink), and artificial intelligence computing. While Tesla reported revenue of $28.046 billion and net income of $787 million, SpaceX generated $14.60 billion in revenue with a substantial $7.6 billion contribution from its AI segment and $5.2 billion from its Connectivity segment, ultimately achieving a net income of $4.4 billion. Tesla’s market value stands at $1.57 trillion, while SpaceX’s is $1.9 trillion.

Complicating the potential deal is Tesla’s reliance on the Chinese market, where its Shanghai Gigafactory shipped 67,829 vehicles in October. Successfully isolating this operation to prevent technology transfer would be crucial, potentially requiring a separate governance structure.

The potential early vesting of Elon Musk’s 286 million restricted shares, stemming from a 2018 compensation package, also adds pressure on the independent committees involved in the negotiations. Musk currently holds approximately 20% of Tesla and roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power.

The next significant event is Tesla’s annual meeting on December 3, 2026, where Musk, chair Robyn Denholm, and JB Straubel are up for re-election, alongside a vote on executive compensation.

The market’s reaction to the potential merger has been muted, with SpaceX shares trading at a lower valuation than Tesla’s. A definitive filing, such as an 8-K, by December 31, 2026, would confirm the validity of the timeline. Otherwise, the recent 15.64% increase in Tesla’s stock price may be considered premature.